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What I Learned Today: Shellfish, Fisheries, Oil, and More

wellfleet, ma

What I did on the Day Two of my vacation: visited an oyster farm in Wellfleet, MA. For serious. These sustainable - “call it green, sustainable, whatever you want” said one oyster farmer today - shellfish fisheries are an interesting canary in the coal mine in several respects. As we’ll see.

And while I’m aware of the concerns with respect to other farmed marine life - see, for example, the concerns regarding farmed salmon here - the oyster beds seem to be remarkably low impact, both in terms of usage and their effect on the ecosystems they inhabit.

Anyway, after listening to an interview of oyster aquaculturists and charter fishermen today, here are five things I learned.

  1. Climate Change:
    Climate change - or at least perceived (see some of my inconclusive Many Eyes weather plottings inspired by Jon Udell here) climate change - is a real issue for oyster farmers. While those working the oyster beds used to fear the onset of winter ice in the bays, they’ve since come to fear the lack of it. Apparently, the sea ice cleans out the would-be predators of shellfish - principally crabs - keeping those populations under control. While the lack of ice is beneficial to the farmers - it’s easier on their equipment - it is far harder on their animals, the oysters. The last time Wellfleet had the necessary sea ice? Better than 5 years ago.
  2. Cost of Oil:
    The cost of fuel, the most obvious oil based derivative, is casting a serious pall on most, if not all, marine businesses. Charter captains are for the first time second guessing their regular movements; when considering whether to head to a spot 20 miles distant, they are thinking first of fuel, second of fish. It’s always a gamble, as they put it. It’s so on their minds, in fact, that they’re trying to cap their RPMs while cruising. Below 4500, they’re efficient. Above, they’re not, but faster.

    Fuel is far from the only manifestation of the elevated cost of oil, however. All oil based products are affected. The petroleum derivative oyster netting which once cost $2.50 per are near 4X that now at north of $8.

    The implications of oil costs for coastal communities are profound. Markets, for example, are shifting. Oysters are increasingly locally sourced rather than forwarded to markets in Boston, from which point they’d be sent to Chicago, San Francisco or even Europe. Part of that shift is in the transportation costs, of course, but it’s also a function of increased Cape demand. Changes, and big ones, are coming to coastal communities from oil.

    Even if they’re not always apparent yet.

  3. Invasive Species:
    Again, as with other geographies, the Cape is struggling with the implications of so-called invasive species. With introduced predatory species like green and spider crabs, oyster drills, and a species of whelk, the delicate balance of the Cape’s ecosystem has been jeopardized. Shellfish farmers and shellfish alike battle the numerous invasive species daily, with the fate of thousands of shellfish and their economic value (which has ranged from $.40 to $1.00 per oyster, recently) in the balance. One of the farmers recalled losing 100,000 oysters in a single evening, due to a decision not to place them under protective nets.

    Unfortunately, as I’ve discovered in conversations with those coping with invasive species in other regions - principally the zebra mussel in western states and the great lakes region - there is little to be done. The usual approach - introducing yet another species to prey on the newly introduced animal - tends to cause as many problems as it solves. For an example, see the hilarious documentary on the cane grub of Australia here.

    Ultimately, ecosystems much adapt, but the collateral damage in between can be severe.

  4. Laws Governing Water Usage:
    One interesting tidbit that I had not been aware of: the laws governing the usage of tidal flats dates back to the 1640’s. The rights of oyster farms thus are governed by laws written literally hundreds of years ago. Also notable is the fact that aquaculture is governed by an entirely different set of regulations relative to fishing, fowling, or navigation, because it is considered farming rather than fishing.
  5. State of Fisheries:
    Near and dear to my heart was discussion of the sport fisheries of the Cape area, and while they have held up better than Maine’s, which has essentially collapsed this summer, the catches are significantly down. Worse, the same year class is being continually reduced, with little to no obvious replenishment.

    This was attributed, not as I expected to the commercial fishing of striped bass and related species down in the Chesapeake region, as I expected, but rather to the overfishing of its primary prey species, including the menhaden.

    The decimation of these feeding stocks - which are permissable and relatively unregulated because it’s not a human food source - has had a predictable impact on its predators. While they struggle to adapt by compensating with the addition of new items to their diet - crabs, primarily - the overall stocks are down.

    Which is then felt here, by anglers all throughout the Northeast.

The above data suggests, to me, certain conclusions:

  1. Climate change will continue to have massive impacts in unanticipated ways
  2. Economics are the most compelling agent for change
  3. Fisheries, which are themselves highly complex ecosystems, will continue to decline unless primary food and sport species - and their prey, and their preys prey, etc - are aggressively managed and protected
  4. Oil costs will reshape marine industries and the towns that support them

Whether all of the above is good or bad depends, of course, on your perspective. Personally, I’m not against the changes precipitated by the rising cost of oil, but the transition is likely to be excruciating for marine communities.

None of us are guaranteed a living, as my Mom always said, but efforts need to be made to assist those subsisting off coastal harvests if families are not to go hungry.

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Lighting Out for the Territories

boat

September looms. With it, a return to the travel death march that threatens to break me each and every fall. In an inevitably futile effort to prepare myself, as of Saturday’s appearance at the excellent WordCamp San Francisco, I am officially indulging myself in two plus weeks of much needed R&R. I’ll be returning to the office shortly after Labor Day.

The time between now and then is to be spent enjoying what charms Maine - and my ever present weather curse - will permit me to. The early part of the week will see me out of state down the Cape, going on assignment as it were with the lady friend to Wellfleet. The moment that’s complete, however, I’ll be hightailing it back to the Good Lands, much to the chagrin of my Maine dwelling friends and neighbors.

Next week’s tentative plans include a visit to one of the state and country’s finest parks in Acadia, along with my inaugural visit to the easternmost point of this country up in Quoddy. Apart from these two items, however, the plan is to linger in Georgetown and spend as much time on the water as circumstances will allow.

In spite of the virtual collapse of the Maine striper fishery - which my numerous critics can confirm for themselves elsewhere - a day on the boat is never a lost day. Few things, in fact, make me feel more alive than whipping up the cove and going for a swim in between the sparsely populated shores of our particular corner of the state. So the cooler will be stocked, most days, and the gas bill will be brutal.

A trip - or trips - to real Portland are likely, as that city tightens its grasp on my attention. As long I’m down there, I’ll try to see some of the recent promotions to the Sox AA affiliate in Lars Anderson and Josh Reddick, and if the stars align I just might swing a game at Fenway.

Either way, I anticipate a relaxing calm before the storm. You, in turn, should anticipate very little activity here. At least activity related to my day job.

For emergencies, please contact my colleague Tom Raftery (tom @ redmonk dot com) - he got the short straw and is the only one of us working, poor gent - for analyst related questions, and the invaluable Marcia Chappell (marcia @ redmonk dot com) for everything else.

Until next time, I bid you a fond (and gloating) farewell.

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RedMonk: We’re Not Perfect, But We Try

There are analyst firms and then there’s Red Monk.” - Tim O’Reilly

It would be impossible for me to explain to you just how flattered I was when I first heard that line reported. Not because it came from a personage of Tim’s stature. Or at least, not just because of that. It was flattering, rather, because I genuinely believe it to be true. I’ll leave the discussion of the relative merits of analyst models for another time; for now, suffice it to say, that I do believe RedMonk is different.

We’re in business, so yes, the primary objective is money. But we try - always - to do things the right way. That, as much as the tangible strategic advantages it afforded, was the fuel for our conversion to an open source model years back.

As I told the audience at WordCamp I delivered these slides to (good coverage of it can be found here), we at RedMonk often bill ourselves - both formally and informally - as the “open source” analyst firm. We’re careful to draw a clear distinction, of course, between the ultimate utility of our “source” and that of the many projects we cover, analyze and run our business on. No one’s going to confuse our paltry contributions with those of major open source projects.

But it is important to us that our content be considered open, which was why we’ve published under Creative Commons’ licenses for years now.

It’s also why a very polite but firm criticism of our particular license choice - made by a gentleman who should feel free to name himself here - hit me pretty hard. We were not, the argument went, truly “open source” because we were publishing content under a non-commercial license. This provision violates the first condition of the Open Source Definition as defined by the OSI. Worse, it’s something I’ve criticized Microsoft for in the past, so not only were we not as “open source” as we believed ourselves to be, I specifically was a hypocrite.

Hypocritical or not, however, I was loathe to relinquish the protection of the non-commercial provision on recently released content, as it protects us from one or two exceedingly unlikely but potentially damaging situations. So we were stuck. Or so I thought.

Fortunately, RedMonk is the beneficiary of some remarkable suggestions from some remarkable individuals, and it didn’t take long for a solution to emerge in this case. The always excellent Dalibor Topic, hearing of our plight in the RedMonk IRC channel (#redmonk on freenode), suggested what should have been obvious: apply, dynamically, licenses based on date. Brilliant, and an idea that I should have come up with myself, but thanks to our community I didn’t have to.

Looking around, I was unable to find a WordPress Creative Commons licensing plugin that had this functionality, so I turned to my friend and one of the better developers I know, Alex King. Alex and his crew over at Crowd Favorite then built for us - and for you, as the plugin is both open source and freely available - Progressive License, the plugin you can see in action on this blog right now.

Simply stated, it allows you to dynamically apply licenses based on datestamps. In other words, it permits the “graduation” of content from one license to another. In my case, as an example, it applies a Creative Commons noncommercial license for the first 60 days - this one - and then retires the noncommercial provision after that time period, applying this license on everything older than 60 days.

As I told the audience at WordCamp yesterday when I announced the plugin, I view this as a win for everyone involved.

  • RedMonk wins because we get the plugin we want, and now the overwhelming majority of our content will be available under terms that meet the OSI’s definition.
  • Crowd Favorite wins because they get paid, and they get the credit for the plugin’s development.
  • WordPress wins because they get a new, more granularly functional WordPress plugin for free.
  • The Creative Commons wins because they get more sophisticated WordPress functionality, and by extension, more liberally licensed content.
  • Open Source wins because the plugin is free software, buildable and modifiable by anyone with the inclination.

The Progressive License plugin is, it must be said, one likely to be of minor interest to those lacking real concerns about how their content is licensed. But for us, and possibly for others like us, it’s a real boon.

I’m not happy with the fact that we were technically in violation of the OSI terms for so long - unwittingly or no. Ignorance is not an adequate excuse, especially for me of all people. But when I promised to address this situation back in June, I meant it.

And I am happy that by way of our efforts to find a solution, we were able to both inject some money into the open source ecosystem and gift it with a potentially useful open source plugin. One which should help others avoid our situation, and generate volumes of more liberally licensed content.

As Tim O’Reilly said, there are analyst firms and there is RedMonk. We don’t claim to be perfect, but we’ll continue to do the best we can to do the right thing.

Thanks here are due to Dalibor for the suggestion, Alex and his team for the work, and Matt for the invite to speak at WordCamp. When you’re there to talk about open source and business models, it’s nice to be able to not just talk, but to do.

We hope you enjoy Progressive License.

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Fight the Future

Beyond the ersatz fireworks display, the symbolically fraught medal competition, questions of audience demographics, or even the success of the carefully planned Lenovo marketing campaign, the Olympics are about the future of technology. At issue is Microsoft’s Silverlight player which, via an Olympics sponsorship, is now likely deployed on millions of desktops the world over.

Such events being fairly routine, you might reasonably ask why this is of particular importance? Why you, in other words, should care?

The answer, in this case, comes to you via DeWitt Clinton’s excellent piece “On Fighting the Web Itself“:

The short answer is that the technology behind Silverlight, and most certainly the company creating it, has the potential of changing how the web itself works.

Or, at least, that’s part of the answer.

Silverlight is but the latest in a string of attempts to “fork the web,” as my colleague has put it in the past when discussing Adobe’s ambitions with the Flash runtime. Nor is this the first time the potential - and potential threat - of Silverlight has been discussed: Jeremy was right when he said that “Microsoft is thinking much bigger than people seem to be giving them credit for.” For more discussion on the threat of proprietary web runtimes, see here, here, here, here, here, or here.

The logic behind these massive strategic plays is as simple as it is unassailable. As many have noted, the technologies that make up the non-vendor centric web are aging; not well, in some cases. DeWitt said the web revs slowly, and he’s right. Enter sophisticated proprietary runtimes and tooling with fancy UI abilities, the ability to play video and more, and the attraction for both the developer and the consumer is obvious.

Meanwhile, the vendor that arrives bearing these gifts is merely seeking an opportunity to cement their place at the table in a world that’s increasingly heterogeneous. In a perfect world, for many within these would-be Kings of the Web, their runtime would not only augment but actually supplant the web development experience, guaranteeing them not only a place at the table but the lion’s share of the meal.

As Christopher Blizzard describes this scenario:

Then there’s the other side of the metric. That as an ecosystem expands it enhances the power of a single player in the market instead of creating many players in the market. Change in that market requires the permission of only that one player and that one player can make decisions on behalf of everyone who is also part of it. That’s not healthy. And it’s not the open web.

Frankly, anyone who is surprised by this behavior hasn’t been paying attention. It is in the nature of most every vendor to seek the elimination of its competition - in spite of the reality that competition is both necessary and beneficial to the firm in the long term (see, Explorer, Internet) - because that way profit lies. Potentially immense profit.

That the behavior is logical, however, doesn’t make it any less worrisome. Particularly, it must be said, in the case of Microsoft. While many harbor concerns about Adobe’s ambitions with regard to Flash and the future of the web, they are less threatening, frankly, both in their ability to execute and their history.

As Gruber bluntly put it:

The strategic bottom line is that Microsoft, under Ballmer, feels compelled to compete everywhere - that they must confront any company achieving any significant success, no matter how far afield that success is from the areas where Microsoft is already winning or doing well.

While this is perhaps something of a harsh assessment - Microsoft is as likely to miss the importance of certain markets, e.g. search, as anyone else and thus must compete broadly to protect its interests - it accurately distills the concerns that many in the industry have for Microsoft’s efforts vis a vis Silverlight.

What has happened before, after all, could well happen again. And nobody wants to be fooled twice. Or three times, or whatever it is.

Personally, I hope that Microsoft, or Adobe, or others will look at the history of the web and conclude that a single dominant platform - as we’ve seen in the operating system and other markets - is unlikely. And that a complementary role is - counterintuitively - in their best interests, because the alternative is being routed around.

I hope this not because I’m convinced like DeWitt that we need all of the abilities these new runtimes provide - I am not, and I think history supports that position. I hope Adobe, Microsoft and the rest get it, rather, because the alternative is a protracted fight. A fight for the “generative web” against a closed future.

And don’t we all have better things to do than fight the future?

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Launchpad and the Future of Package Management

In his piece announcing Drizzle, MySQL’s Brian Aker had the following to say about Canonical’s Launchpad platform, saying:

Launchpad has turned out to be pretty awesome. You should be thinking about using it. Do not get caught up in the git vs bzr vs hg debate. It is not about the tool, think iPod/iTunes. It is about the infrastructure around it.

Which was appropriate, as the project itself was being hosted there. High profile though Drizzle may be, however, its choice of infrastructure by itself would not be that noteworthy except for the fact that it’s one of a number of projects doing the same.

Just on my own installation of Ubuntu, I’m using Launchpad builds of the following:

  1. Banshee
  2. Emacs
  3. Gloss
  4. Google Gadgets
  5. GNOME Do
  6. IOTop
  7. JSON-Glib
  8. Stackswitch
  9. Tasque
  10. Thinkpad Fan Control
  11. Thinkpad X300 Audio

Notice that these are not Canonical projects, but third party efforts. Notice too that they have little to nothing in common. And yet all are hosted on and served to me via Launchpad. In the past, these would have been hosted at repositories outside the Ubuntu ecosystem; the developer’s own site, perhaps, or maybe Sourceforge. Now, however, the trending is towards hosting over at Launchpad.

The reasons for this vary, and Ubuntu is far from the only distribution seeing this type of activity: Gentoo’s overlays have become the norm rather than the exception they were when I was running that distro full time.

What this points to, I think, besides an increased willingness to fork cited by Brian at OSCON and that I’ll talk about later, is the next evolution of Linux package management systems.

Package management, a subject I’ve discussed many times before, is magic in the Arthur C Clarke sense of the word as opposed to, oh, the Harry Potter. The first time you see it, you’re likely to be shocked because none of the commercially available operating systems today have an equivalent. Tim Bray’s reaction, in fact, is unprintable in this family friendly space, so positive was he on apt. And yet the differentiation package management permits is massively underleveraged. Here’s how I put it in March of 2007:

Despite this seemingly impressive feature, you’ll rarely if ever hear this touted by Linux advocates; perhaps they simply take it for granted given that many if not most Linux admins have never known a distro without it. As a result, my recommendations that Linux distributions press their advantage in this area by leveraging existing infrastructures to connect to both commercial and community oriented repositories more or less fell on deaf ears.

To be sure, Launchpad isn’t the solution to the inexplicable lack of attention paid to package management. But what it can do is evolve the feature to incorporate more third party applications, whether they’re built by Joe Developer or Google.

Which makes it worth watching, IMO.

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links for 2008-08-12 [delicious.com]

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